Estimates of the impact of climate change on the upper Guadalfeo river in the framework of the RiskCoast project

Climate projections provided by some Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario show a reduction in mean annual precipitation of up to 31%

This means about 124 hm3 per year less, in the upper part of the Guadalfeo basin.

In addition, the results of rainfall impact erosion modelling point to an increase of up to 180%.

The increase in the intensity of the events, together with a decrease of up to 80% of the snow cover, favours the erosion rate with implications for the management and planning of water resources in the study area.

Guadalfeo Precipitation

Guadalfeo Rill Erossion